Component C state is the top-level market regime, derived from 3-day rolling average ETF net flows
across BTC / ETH / SOL / XRP. Polls Coinglass every hour after the daily 24h flow refresh.
AMPLIFY = enough swing coins flowing positive to boost A scores entering tier 1.
NEUTRAL = mixed/weak flows, no multiplier applied.
HALT = strongly negative flows; tier 1 entries blocked.
Tier and trigger path identify which combination of coins drove the state (e.g., "4of4_positive", "three_or_more_with_btc_eth").
Total ETF Net Flow ?
Sum of the latest 3-day rolling average net flow across the four ETF coins (BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP), in USD.
Positive (green) = net inflow, negative (red) = net outflow. Swing coins listed below are the ones whose
individual flow direction would flip Component C state if reversed.
Per-Coin ETF Flow (3-day avg) ?
Each card shows the 3-day rolling average net flow for one ETF coin in USD, refreshed hourly from Coinglass.
A coin tagged SWING is one whose individual flow flipping sign would change the overall Component C state — in other words, the coin
"controls" the regime decision right now.
Coin Analysis ?
DUD (DrawUp/DrawDown) Ratio: Measures asymmetry between upside and downside price action over 48 hours using 8-hour sampled close prices with exponential weighted smoothing.
DUD > 2.0 = coin shows 2x more upside than downside potential → ENGAGED.
Backtested across 3 models and 31 coins with +54.2% edge over baseline at the 2.0 threshold.
State Machine: Coins enter ENGAGED on a single DUD > 2.0 observation. Exit requires 2 consecutive 8h samples below threshold (16h sustained).
Tier 1 Gate: Only coins with composite score >70 are evaluated. Coins are re-evaluated against Tier 1 every 4 days.
Score: Tier 1 composite (0–100). Reason: Shows why a coin was disengaged (TIER1, TIER2, or both).
Click any row to expand detailed charts and metrics.
